Which Rockie Is Having the Best Spring Training: Elehuris Montero or Michael Toglia?

Let’s start with the obvious: Spring training games mean nothing. Absolutely nothing.

However, we know that Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia are competing for playing spots in the Colorado Rockies’ “six-man platoon.” Both general manager Bill Schmidt and manager Bud Black have been clear that these players will be earning their playing time, and, presumably, the front office is looking, in part, at spring training data in making that decision.

Given all that, it’s worth considering what we know so far — again, with the caveat that spring training data provides very little insight into the season itself. (All numbers are current as of the Wednesday series with the Rangers, and all data is taken from FanGraphs.)

Standard statistics

Let’s start with the standard numbers to see what’s gleanable there.

Both have appeared in the same number of games (ten), and both players have had 25 plate appearances. That means they’ve seen fairly identical opportunities offensively.

Toglia has four singles to Montero's two; Montero has two doubles to Toglia’s one, and with three home runs, Montero has a slight edge over Toglia.

Here’s one of Montero’s:

And Toglia’s:

In addition, Montero has walked twice in contrast to Toglia’s three walks. However, Toglia has more strikeouts, eight, to Montero’s five. Both have grounded into a double play.

In short, both players are having fairly similar springs though Toglia’s strikeouts bear watching given that this was an area in which he struggled in 2023 (32.9% K%).

Advanced statistics

Consider, then, the advanced statistics.

Keep in mind that this is still small-sample-size territory, but here are some early trends.

First, notice that the players’ BB/K is virtually identical (with Montero’s slightly higher). However, the K% provides a substantial contrast: Montero’s is 20.0% while Toglia’s is 32.0%. Additionally, they have identical OBP (.400) while Montero’s SLG is substantially higher (.857 as opposed to .636).

Also, check out the BABIP: Toglia’s is .417 while Montero’s is .286, a notable difference.

Montero and Toglia are showing strengths in different areas.

Batted-ball data

FanGraphs provides one last set of spring training information: batted-ball statistics.

Notably, Montero has a lower GB/FB rate, and he has hit more fly balls (58.8%) and fewer ground balls (17.6%). Given that his home park is Coors Field, hitting the ball in the air pays dividends.

That said, their balls and strikes numbers are very similar.

Other factors

As the Rockies make this decision, there are some other factors they need to consider.

The first is flexibility, and in that, Toglia has the clear advantage given that he can play first base in addition to the outfield. Moreover, he is a better first baseman than Montero. (This makes sense given that he has spent most of his career playing first.)

Additionally, Toglia is a switch hitter, something he says he will not abandon, even though there are some suggestions that he may be better from the left side of the plate. (Frankly, a Montero-Toglia platoon makes sense; however, the Rockies commitment to Kris Bryant eliminates this possibility. Something else to explore might be Sean Bouchard starting the season in Albuquerque.)

Third, Montero is out of options while the Rockies can start Toglia in Albuquerque this season.

Prediction

Obviously, trying to know the future is a guess at best, but it seems likely that Montero will break camp with the Rockies while Toglia will head to Albuquerque. But expect Toglia to spend considerable time in Denver.

But the Rockies understand this is a season when they will be making roster decisions with long-term consequences — Bill Schmidt has said as much.

Expect one of these players to no longer be with the team by the end of the season.

Spring Breakout

Yesterday, teams announced their rosters for “Spring Breakout,” a new initiative that will have each team’s top prospects playing a game during spring training. Read more about the Rockies‘ roster here.

And then the Rockies had their prospects introduce themselves.

It’s pretty terrific to see the future of the franchise. The window is opening!

What I’m Reading

• Turns out, there are new items on the Coors Field menu in 2024.

Vegan burgers and shakes are coming to Coors Field

Here’s what’ll be added to the concession options when the Colorado Rockies’ new season opens.

DenveriteIsaac Vargas

• Yes, Kyle Freeland's pitches are a bit different this year. Manny Randhawa has some of the details.

• Kris Bryant made some comments that weekend that drew national attention. Skyler Timmins explains what happened.

Wednesday Rockpile: Making sense of Kris Bryant’s comments

Colorado Rockies news and links for Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Purple RowSkyler Timmins

• Okay, I know this isn't an Airzona Diamondbacks site, but this is just some epic work on the part of Geraldo Perdomo (who wore a microphone for much of the broadcast).

Closing Thoughts

That’s it for this week.

We’ll know more soon about how the Rockies’ roster is shaping up for 2024, and there’s Spring Breakout to look forward to next weekend.

Also, I finally got RockiesPitch.com set as the domain for this newsletter, and I feel like I’ve climbed Mt. Everest or something!

Thanks for reading —

Renee