Let’s Talk About the Colorado Rockies at the Trade Deadline — Pitchers

Do the Rockies have any viable pitchers to trade?

Let’s Talk About the Colorado Rockies at the Trade Deadline — Pitchers

The Colorado Rockies are not known for being active at the trade deadline. They tend to overvalue their prospects and either attempt to move them too late or expect an excessive return. In recent years, they’ve been more successful with modest trades that generally involve a free-agent pitcher they pick up on a one-year contract and flip at the deadline.

Here are some examples of trades under Bill Schmidt’s leadership:

Some of Schmidt’s trades have been successful (e.g., Victor Vodnik); some are pending (e.g., Tyler Freeman, Bradley Blalock); and some are unknown (e.g., Connor Van Scoyoc and Mason Albright).

However, all of these trades, save Sam Hilliard, were free agents the Rockies were able to flip.

Last week, Ken Rosenthal reported, “People briefed on the situation said the Rockies’ historically bad start isn’t expected to alter their way of handling the trade deadline, which typically has meant little activity for them.” Specifically mentioned as unavailable was reliever Jake Bird.

I mean, maybe.

Yes, the Rockies have historically been resistant to change, but I think folks saying that do not fully appreciate how bad the Rockies are this year, and how difficult this season is for everyone in the organization. Plus, no one expected Dick Monfort to fire Bud Black in early May, but it happened. (I will also be surprised to see Bill Schmidt survive the end of the year, but that’s a topic for another day.)

I may be an outlier here, but I expect the Rockies to move some players at the deadline who, typically, they would not in the past because desperate times call for desperate measures — and being under 20 wins heading into late June qualifies as “desperate.”

With that said, here’s my best attempt to divine the Rockies’ thinking in terms of their pitching staff.

First, who’s not gone? All the young pitchers: Ryan Feltner, Chase Dollander, Carson Palmquist, Zach Agnos, Seth Halvorsen, Juan Mejia, and Victor Vodnik. Schmidt has dedicated his front office time to building up the Rockies pitching inventory, and those players will not be moved. Simply put, they’re the future.

Also not moving is Antonio Senzatela.

I realize the Rockies get a great deal of (deserved) ridicule over the Kris Bryant contract, but folks really should consider Senzatela’s a bit. He’s under contract with the Rockies until 2026 with a salary AAV of $10.10 million. (The entire contract is five years for $50.5 million.) There is little evidence that Senzatela has MLB stuff — his numbers defy logic in today’s game. (Last week against the Washington Nationals, he had one swing-and-miss in 83 pitches.) Currently, he has a 6.72 ERA, and strikeouts are just not part of his game. I expect the Rockies to move Senzatela into long relief, but no one is taking that contract.

Now to pitchers who may be dealt.

Jake Bird — I wrote about Bird last week, both in this newsletter and for Purple Row. (That piece includes an interview with Bird on the evolution of his sinker). With the exception of Ryan McMahon, he is the Rockies most valuable trade asset, and if there’s something they are learning this season, it’s that they need a more robust roster. Trading Bird can help that happen. Respectfully, Mr. Rosenthal, I think Bird is gone (though not to any team in the NL West because the Rockies will not want years of facing him).

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

Austin Gomber — This one is health permitting given that Gomber only pitched his first MLB game last week due to shoulder soreness. But it was a solid outing, and there will be teams needing a rested arm and an above-average curveball. Currently, he’s making $6.35 million and will be a free agent at the end of the season, so he would be a rental. I do not see the Rockies getting back much in return unless Gomber is absolately stellar in the coming weeks, but I do not expect him to finish the season with the Rockies. Contending teams’ need for pitching is simply too great.

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

Jimmy Herget — He’s been under-the-radar good this season. Currently, he has a 3.12 ERA in 34.2 IP. And his road ERA? That would be 1.84. He’s on a one-year contract for $850,000 and will not be a free agent until 2028. There is no way he’s with the Rockies after July 31, especially since this is the kind of contract Schmidt’s Rockies have specialized in flipping.

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

• Tyler Kinley — I know: The numbers do not look good: 7.11 ERA. But he’s had terrible luck, and the underlying numbers are excellent. (Home ERA: 10.95; road ERA: 4.66.) His Whiff% is 73%, and his Chase% is 88%. Kinley’s three-year contract (AAV: $2.08 million) ends this season with a club option for 2026. I get the skeptics, but I will not be surprised to see Kinley finish the season with another team.

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

Germán Márquez — Even though Márquez has struggled to return from Tommy John surgery, he will go down as one of the Rockies greatest pitchers. And all signs suggest that in June, Márquez has redefined himself as a pitcher. He’s using his fastball less and his knuckle curve more, again becoming more effective. (Joelle Milholm has an analysis here.) This is the final year of his contract (AAV: $10 million), and I expect it to be his last as a Rockie. Márquez will not bring back the return he would have a few years ago, but he’s a veteran pitcher whose stuff can still play.

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

If this happens, I’ll be sad to see him go. But I also really like Germán Márquez, and I’d like to see him get a chance with a winning organization that can help him continue to reinvent himself.

Kyle Freeland — Frankly, I was surprised when Freeland was mentioned in a trade speculation article (specifically to the Chicago Cubs). It’s difficult for me to see Freeland playing for any other team, given how closely his personal brand is tied to being from Colorado. He’s been solid for the last three seasons, with some of the worst luck of any pitcher in baseball, as Evan Lang details here. Currently, Freeland’s contract runs through 2026, and he receives an AAV of $12.90 million. I’m not sure he would be worth that to other teams, but maybe. He’s a veteran lefty, and away from Coors Field, his ERA is 3.64, even with that lack of run support. I could see a trade, but it’s the one I have the least confidence in the Rockies making.

(Visit his Statcast page here.)

And that’s it on the pitching side. It seems odd to write that the Rockies have more pitching assets to move than position players, but a curious sequence of events has made that the case. Also, if they make trades, I expect some of them to happen sooner rather than later. Anyone serious about one of the Rockies pitchers needs to get them out of elevation and playoff ready in a less demanding environment.

Next week, I’ll look at position players.


What I’m Reading

Colorado Rockies dig in against MLB's worst season ever: 'Go straight through it' | USA Today — Gabe Lacques gets it: The clubhouse’s coping strategy; Hunter Goodman; and Chase Dollander’s confidence. Many national writers miss the complexity of the Rockies team chemistry right now, but not Lacques.

What role will Dick Monfort's sons play in future of franchise? | Denver Post — In his weekly mailbag, Patrick Saunders speculates on what’s next for the Rockies. He does not see Dick Monfort stepping down prior to the CBA in 2026 though he does wonder if Walker Monfort will play a more-prominent role. He also anticipates significant front office changes.

How a change in pregame prep is boosting Rockies on road | MLB.com — The Rockies recent success on the road may be the result of a change in their pre-game strategy.


Closing Thoughts

And that’s it for this week.

Who saw the Rockies having a winning road trip? Look, when a team is historically bad, any win is a good thing.

In the coming week, they’ll be back at Coors for a home stand that includes a struggling Arizona Diamondbacks team and the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. Probably, the D-backs are the more interesting of the two given that they need to get on track, or they will probably be selling at the deadline (which is not what this team was built to do).

As always, thanks for reading, and feel free to share this with a friend.

Renee

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Rockies Pitch is a newsletter that focuses on Colorado Rockies baseball. Find me on Bluesky at @Renee.Dechert.com.