What I got right and wrong about the 2025 Rockies

There is considerably more of the latter than the former.

Renee Dechert

26 Sep 2025 — 5 min read

The Colorado Rockies 2025 Rookie Class

Back in March 2025, when we were all so much younger and in the best shape of our lives, I did my annual SWOT analysis, complete with predictions. Given that the Colorado Rockies season is in its final days, this seemed a good time to revisit what I got right and what I got wrong.

TLDR: I do not have a career in making predictions.

I expected the Rockies to be bad; however, I did not expect them to be this bad — as in 116 losses and a gobsmacking -412 run differential, by far the worst of the Modern Era. I said the Rockies would go 61-101, which was a terribly optimistic prediction.

For those keeping track at home, with just four games remaining, the Rockies’ 115 losses are the second-most by an NL team since 1900. They have tied the 1935 Atlanta Braves and are behind only the 1962 Mets (120).

With that in mind, let’s get to it.

What I got right

Promotions — I said that I expected to see a lot of traffic between the Rockies farm system and Coors field. “If you like to watch prospects, this will be a pretty terrific season to be a Rockies fan,” I wrote.

This happened in spades.

So many players were promoted to the Majors this season, a record 13 for the Rockies. Part of that was fueled by desperation (e.g., Ryan Ritter and Adael Amador when the Rockies had no healthy infielders, and McCade Brown when the Rockies were desperate for a nearby starter while being on the East Coast). Part of that was fueled by a genuine desire to see what a player could do (e.g., Yanquiel Fernández and Warming Bernabel).

This was not a good Rockies team, but if you’ve followed prospects and are a fan of letting the kids play, this was a full season for you.

I also predicted that Chase Dollander and Zac Veen would be promoted early and show they were ready. Although Dollander earned an early promotion, he finished the season with 6.52 ERA (3.46 on the road and 9.98 at Coors). He may yet be a dude, but he’s going to have to figure out pitching at elevation first.

As for Veen, he played in only 12 games and finished his Rockies time with a .118/.189/.225 slashline. He spent some time on the IL and making swing adjustments. He had an okay season in ABQ (.289/.359/.464), but he’s still not breaking down the door.

Tyler Freeman will be better at elevation — “It won’t be a staggering change, but it will be notable,” I wrote.

This prediction was more right than wrong. Tyler Freeman was better offensively than he had been with the Guardians (91 wRC+ as opposed to an 84 wRC+), but he was significantly worse defensively (3 DRS with Cleveland and -10 DRS with the Rockies). I suspect part of this stemmed from learning to play a corner, which Freeman said early on was harder than playing center due to the angles.

What I got wrong

Here’s where the list gets longer.

The Rockies rotation was not better — I said that Ryan Feltner would be the Rockies best pitcher. However, his season was pretty much done in May, first due to back issues and then because of shoulder problems. He appeared in only six games.

I expected improvement from Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Austin Gomber. Instead, Márquez has an ERA of 6.49, and his days in purple are probably over. Gomber was released, and Senzatela has been moved to the bullpen.

As a whole, the starting rotation has an ERA of 6.61, by worst the in MLB. (The Washington Nationals have a starting ERA of 5.14.)

Kyle Freeland has been by far the Rockies best starter (5.00 ERA; 2.4 fWAR).

The worst? Bradley Blacklock, who has a 9.35 ERA in 11 starts.

So the rotation was not better — at all.

Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar did not have stellar seasons — I said they would both go to the All-Star Game. Instead, both Doyle and Tovar struggled with injuries early and were inconsistent at the plate. A Gold Glove nomination for either player seems unlikely.

Conversely, I did not see Hunter Goodman, All-Star, coming. He had an extraordinarily successful season (3.2 fWAR) and has probably shaken up the Rockies catching calculus. Drew Romo, who was thought the be the Rockies future starter, was relegated to a footnote in 2025.

Michael Toglia will not be a Gold Glove finalist — I saw this as a year for Toglia picking up where he left off. That did not happen. Instead, he appeared in 88 games and spent much of the season in ABQ. He was ineffective at the plate (39.2 K%, one of the highest scores in MLB), and the defensive metrics (-3 DRS) did not show him to be effective at first base. This season, he emerged as a AAAA player, and it seems unlikely he will be with the Rockies much longer given the playing time they’ve given to Warming Bernabel and Blaine Crim.

(Actually, I got Crim wrong, too. Even though he was not with the Rockies when I made my predictions, earlier in the season, I was skeptical about Crim. Instead, he has, so far, proven himself a capable hitter.)

Coors Field’s 30th anniversary was not especially notable — I thought the Rockies would make a big deal out of this, but they did not. In fact, I forgot it was Coors birthday until rereading my old column. Sure, there were some celebrations, but I feel like this one was largely overlooked.

Looking ahead

Now, all attention turns to 20th and Blake as fans wait to see what the Rockies will do. Will there be significant changes in the Rockies front office? Will Walker Monfort become a more public presence? Will Warren Schaeffer be made the permanent manager?

Right now, no one knows, but it feels like the Rockies will want to resolve this quickly to provide stability to the organization. If there’s going to be a new PBO or GM, that person needs to be installed, and if Schaeffer will become the manager, that needs to be settled as well.

I expect we will know early next week, but then again, it’s the Rockies, so anything could happen.

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What I’m reading

How the Colorado Rockies became one of the worst teams in MLB history | ESPN.com — Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers begin the autopsy. I’m not sure there’s much new here, save Walker’s willingness to answer questions. The authors conclude by asking the key question: “Are the Rockies capable of change? We're about to find out.”
Rockies owner at crossroads as MLB labor talks loom | Sports Business Journal — All eyes turn to 2027.
MLB to adopt ABS Challenge System | Purple Row — It’s happening. (I’ve been a fan of this since last spring.)

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